Decisions. They bombard us daily. Some are easy, instinctive. Others leave us paralyzed. The question is: how do you decide? And how can you be sure?

Perhaps you’ve heard of decision fatigue, that overwhelming feeling when choices pile up, each one more complex than the last, that results in mental and physical exhaustion. Procrastination sets in. We’re paralyzed by analysis. And the decisions we do make? Often, they're not our best. An effective strategy to counter decision fatigue is following a structured approach.

I recently discovered a simple, but effective five-step framework for making good decisions in the book Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish, who spent years working for an intelligence agency and runs the Farnham Street blog. 

Steps for Decision Making

Define: Identify Your Goal

In order to make a good decision, you first need to get clear on what you’re trying to achieve. What’s your goal, or the problem you are trying to solve? If you skip this step, you could miscalculate your options and end up with a great solution for the wrong problem, so it’s important to separate defining the problem from solving it. 

For example, a common career-related question is whether to stay in your current job or seek something else. But the answer depends on why you are thinking of leaving, and what you hope to get with a new job – in other words, what is the root cause? It could be anything from not being able to meet your career goals in the current role, wanting to explore an entirely different career, or having a bad manager. Clearly identifying the root of the problem avoids the trap of fixing a symptom, which might only be a short-term fix.

Sometimes, the answer is clear right from the start. Other times, this first step reveals key criteria to guide your exploration. And don't forget obstacles. Start anticipating them now.

Explore: Brainstorm Alternatives

Once you know your goal, think about your options. It’s common to pick between two choices, but try to come up with at least three. This might mean some combination of the two options you’ve already thought of. For example, instead of stay vs go, another option if your current job isn’t meeting your needs could be to stay while also exploring options for the long term, or learning a new skill, or taking on a new responsibility. 

Consider at this stage what negative outcomes may occur if things go wrong, and what your contingency plan would be. If one of the options were not possible, what then would you do?

Second-level thinking is key. Trace each option from start to finish. What happens next? And if things go south, what new problem emerges? What information do you still need to make the best call?

Additionally, consider the opportunity costs – the hidden trade-offs – associated with choosing one option over another.

Evaluate: Weigh Your Options

Now that you understand the problem and have your possible solutions identified, identify the specific criteria for the problem at hand. They should be clear, support your goal, and be decisive enough to favor exactly one option. List out all the criteria that are important to you and then determine what on that list that matters most to you. 

If you need to gather information about your options in order to apply your criteria, it’s best to get this from the person closest to the problem. That way you get what Parrish calls high-fidelity information – facts without biases and opinions. Get information from experts and people who have solved a similar problem recently, asking them for their reasons and how they thought about the problem.

Decide and Execute: Pick The Best Option and Take Action

This is where you synthesize all your options and information to arrive at a decision. Once committed, take action - this is the final, crucial step. Fear of consequences or making the wrong choice can often hold us back. Assess your decision along two dimensions: consequentiality and reversibility.

In scenarios where the stakes are low, not taking action hurts you more than speed. So when the cost of making a mistake is low and your action is easy to reverse, you’re best off making a swift decision. Avoid wasting precious time and mental energy deliberating – simply choose and move froward. 

Conversely, when the stakes are high – when a mistake would be highly consequential and irreversible – take the time to gather as much information as possible and delay your decision until the last possible moment. You’ll know it’s time to execute your decision once you’ve exhausted all avenues for gathering useful information, encounter the first missed opportunity, or gain new insights that clearly indicate the optimal choice. 

You can minimize the cost of failure by adding a margin of safety, a buffer between what you expect to happen and what could happen. The key is preparation and maintaining flexibility. Take small, low-risk steps toward as many options as possible before you commit to one, preserving your optionality.

Parrish offers a valuable tip: sleep on a decision before you tell anyone. Once you have made a decision, you start to see things in a new light, allowing you to reassess and connect with your feelings about the choice.

Decision-making doesn’t have to be a struggle. With a little structure, you can simplify the process and gain confidence in making choices that truly align with your goals. Remember, the goal isn’t to eliminate uncertainty entirely – that's part of life! It’s about equipping yourself with tools and strategies to make informed and effective decisions of all kinds.